Grier's Notes: January 1, 2024
News from around the world
Russia has intensified its war on Ukraine by launching attacks on cities across Ukraine. The attacks appear primarily aimed at trying to send a message to Ukrainian civilians rather than advance a particular military objective with Russia hoping a renewed assault will undermine the Ukrainian will to fight.
The Russian government summoned the Finnish ambassador to offer vague threats about the agreement of Finland to allow US military forces access to Finland with Russian officials noting their “concern” about Western aggression. Of course, if Russia is looking for the real culprit to blame for Finland’s decision to abandon its neutrality stance it should try looking at the mirror as it has been Putin’s own actions which have pushed Finland into a more defensive stance.
Americans on their borders is not the only threat the Russian authorities are watching warily They are also cracking on the threat of poetry with two men getting long prison sentences for their poetic recitations at an antiwar rally meant to deter others from using rhyme to express their concern about Putin’s warlike turn.
The world’s second longest-serving leader, Queen Margrethe of Denmark, used her New Year’s Eve message to make the surprise announcement she will be abdicating her throne after 52 years. Her successor will be Crown Prince Frederik who at 55 will finally get the promotion he has spent his life training for.
Germany’s Defence Minister has suggested that the nation may have to look at introducing conscription to address a serious shortage of military personnel. The inability to recruit volunteers has hamstrung efforts to implement the military buildup German leaders committed to in the wake of Putin’s invasion of Ukraine
Poland’s new government has attempted to make sweeping changes to the state broadcasting and news agencies. The government argues that it needs to remake the agencies in order to keep its promise to “depoliticize” the news it had accused of becoming propaganda outlets under the previous government but their aggression efforts have led to accusations that the new government itself is running roughshod over the proper procedures as it tries to remake the government.
Opposition supporters continue to rally in protest of the recent election in Serbia which they claim was marred by irregularities as the Constitutional Court considers complaints over allegations of ballot stuffing and busing in of ineligible voters.
Israel’s Supreme Court has struck down the Netanyahu government’s judicial reform package that limited the court’s ability to use judicial review in an 8-7 decision. The majority found that it would harm Israel’s democratic process to put limits on the court’s right to overturn any law passed by legislators. The decision puts new strain on the current national unity government which has tried to set aside the debates that had dominated Israeli politics prior to October 7 in favour of focusing on the ongoing campaign against Hamas.
Jordan’s government announced it has blocked a plot by Iran-backed groups in Syria to smuggle weapons into Jordan. Militia groups have increasingly been operating on the Syria-Jordan border raising fears that they may destabilize Jordan’s security.
The conflict in the Red Sea has continued to rise with Western forces clashing with Houthis who continue to threaten sea traffic. Adding to the tensions is the news Iran has also deployed a ship to the Red Sea as it continues to offer quiet support to the increasingly bold Houthi rebels.
More than 140 Nigerians were killed in a string of attacks on Christmas Eve in a region that has seen attacks on Christians by radical Muslim groups.
Zambia's Foreign Minister has resigned following the release of a video showing him accepting stacks of money from a Chinese business leader. The minister reassured the public that there was nothing untoward happening merely a private business deal that the public had nothing to worry about. However, he found it prudent to step aside rather than try to stay in the limelight.
Angola has quit OPEC over disagreements about the production quotas the cartel had asked its members to abide by as it tries to stabilize oil prices. The exit illustrates one of the challenges of trying to run a cartel without true control of the market. While OPEC still has a significant ability to impact oil prices there are now many other producers who are outside of the group and whose ability to get the benefits of OPEC’s efforts without having to accept the limitations of being in the cartel makes being a member look less appealing which risks creating a cycle where the remaining members will face even more pressure to limit production which may lead to further exits.
The Democratic Republic of the Congo election officials have declared incumbent President Felix Tshisekedi as the winner of the recent election with 73% of the votes. The result has not been accepted by opposition supporters who have clashed with police in protests demanding the election be invalidated and rerun.
Ethiopia and Somaliland have made an agreement that would give Ethiopia naval and commercial access to Somaliland’s ports in exchange for Ethiopia recognizing Somaliland’s independence. While this was a more peaceful way for PM Abiy Ahmed to achieve the access to sea which his recent musing about had generated concern among his neighbours the deal is not free of controversy given Somalia has never recognized Somaliland’s claim to independence.
Chad’s transitional government has appointed opposition leader Succes Masra as Prime Minister as it attempts to transition back to democracy following the military takeover that happened in 2021 after the death of longtime ruler Idriss Deby Itno. While most opposition parties have been suspicious of the process, Masra has been more supportive as reflected in his agreement to work with the junta towards new elections.
One interesting development in Africa in 2023 was that the largest source of foreign investment was not China but the UAE. The numbers reflect both China’s somewhat more cautious approach to foreign investment in a year where its economic challenges have mounted and the UAE’s aggressive efforts to deploy its deep pockets of oil wealth to investments for the future.
Armenia skipped the most recent meeting of the Russian-led Collective Security Treaty Organisation continuing its recent move to distance itself from its formerly close ally. The failure of Russia to provide any support or intervention in the recent war with Azerbaijan has left Armenians rethinking the value of a security arrangement that does not seem to provide much security.
Imran Khan’s party has turned to an AI-generated audio speech to promote the former PM who is unable to campaign in Pakistan’s upcoming election due to his detention over charges that he leaked classified documents. With their leader in jail, the party has been holding virtual rallies with AI-Khan offering the sort of speech the actual man presumably would if he was not in jail.
A Bangladesh court has sentenced Nobel Peace Prize winner Muhammad Yunus to 6 months in prison over allegations that his company had violated labour laws. While the government insists it is simply concerned about the welfare of the employees working for the economist’s organization skeptics note how the conviction confidently silences one of the most prominent critics of the current government.
As the Chinese government appointed a new defence minister it has still been busy conducting a major purge of the military unit that oversees missiles. The purge has been justified in only very vague references to the need to root out corruption. This presents a challenge in writing about it since it’s not clear that any Western sources really have a good understanding of what exactly is happening and why China has upended the command structure of one of its most important branches.
Kim Jong Un’s cheerful New Year’s message to his military emphasized his willingness to destroy the capitals of South Korea and the US if the two nations make any attempt to move against North Korea.
Javier Milei’s attempt to remake Argentina’s economy faces its first big test with his sweeping orders to eliminate or rewrite more than 300 regulations as it goes before the legislature for approval. His opponents have launched large protests forcing the legislature to quickly decide how accommodating they will be of Milei’s plans for radical reform.
Milei has also pulled Argentina out of plans to join the BRICS alliance preferring to align himself more clearly with Western nations and with the causes of Ukraine and Israel rather than be part of the counter-Western block some envision the BRICS being.
Yet another attempt to replace Chile’s constitution has failed with voters once again rejecting a proposal in the most recent constitutional referendum. The campaign saw the leftwing leaders who had championed the process of replacing the existing constitution which dates from the Pinochet era campaign against the new constitution after rightwing parties dominated the election for the constitutional convention resulting in a document that was far from what the originators of the campaign had envisioned. With two constitutions having been rejected there now appears to be little enthusiasm for a third attempt with voters wanting more focus on the more immediate issues of the nation.
Venezuela mobilized troops in what President Maduro claimed was a response to a British warship that arrived on the coast of Guyana which was in turn a response to Maduro’s recent threats against Guyana. It remains unclear the degree to which Maduro is actually serious about invading Guyana or whether he’s simply trying to find a nationalist wedge to boost his support in upcoming elections that might encourage voters to spend less time considering the wreckage his government has made of the nation.
Predictions Past and Present
Once again Grier’s Notes is holding a forecasting contest for any bright and informed readers who want to try their skills at predicting the year ahead. You can see this year’s questions and submit your 2024 entry here.
The 2023 contest had several entries with the collective group having a mixed record. With the caveat noted below that one question has not been fully answered yet, congrats to Sam the winner of the 2023 contest with 9 points scored.
Looking back at the 2023 questions offers some insights about the year that just was.
The first question was about whether Joe Biden and Donald Trump would still be in the race for President by the end of the year. While more than 70% of the entries predicted that at least one of two would be out of the race by now, both men remain candidates and large favourites to win their respective nominations despite the distinct lack of enthusiasm shown by the public for this repeat.
On the question of how many G7 countries would be in recession tentative answer is that only Germany experienced a recession though both Japan and the UK are at risk of finishing the year with shrinking economies so we’ll have to wait to declare a definite answer on this one. This was a better result than the contest predicted where the lowest guess was that 3 countries would be in recession and most were in the 4-6 range. The low number of recessions somewhat masks what was a still relatively gloomy economic picture in many places where persistently high inflation left the voters in bad moods in many nations.
The third question of how many G7 leaders would change produced little drama since the answer turned out to be 0. This does not reflect great enthusiasm for the leaders all of whom other the Italy’s Meloni have had a rough year in approval ratings but the fact that none of the leaders had to face the voters in an election. Their popularity will be put more to the test in 2024 with elections in the US and UK as well as possibly Canada and unpopular leaders in Germany and Japan may need to consider whether they will lead their parties in elections set for 2025.
Predictions for the war in Ukraine nearly unanimously predicted the war would be continuing at the end of the year which unfortunately was accurate with as noted at the top the conflict appearing to be intensifying rather than dying down at the end of the year. Given Putin appears to be gambling he can outwait the West’s willingness to back Ukraine 2024 may be the crucial year for the future of the conflict.
Not so good was the box office prognosticating with no one predicting that Barbie would be the year’s biggest film.
The contest did better in unanimously predicting that China would not invade Taiwan. This was not a particularly hard question in that China does not yet appear to be fully in a position to attempt the logistical challenge such a campaign would present. But with President Xi using his 2024 New Year’s address to proclaim that China’s “reunification” with Taiwan is inevitable it remains a major question for the years to come about how far Xi will go to achieve this dream.
Africa saw 2 coups overthrow governments in Niger and Gabon. There were an additional 5 unsuccessful efforts to seize power in Africa serving as a reminder of the fragility of democracy in some parts of the continent.
Apple started and ended the year as the company with the largest market cap.
New Zealand’s Jacinda Arden and Argentina’s Alberto Fernández both chose not to run again in elections which saw the opposition beat the candidates chosen to succeed them. Finland’s Sanna Marin did face the voters but lost. The exception to the trend was Turkey’s Erdogan who faced a more vigorous challenge than he has in recent years but still held on to power.
The Stanley Cup was won by the Golden Knights who were not one of the listed choices but were still the most common prediction in the other option by my readers who clearly have a better handle on hockey than the preferences of movie-goers.
As a final note on the year thanks to everyone who read and engaged with Grier’s Notes in 2023. I appreciate all the support. And for any friends and family who were perhaps disappointed in their Christmas haul, I would remind them that a subscription to Grier’s Note is available for free to anyone who wants to follow along with news the world has in store for 2024 by clicking on “subscribe now” button below.
Links
How AI is stealing jobs from internet influencers
The woman who sang for 126 hours in a row
Is the future of farming robots farming in giant towers?
Quote of the day
"Reality, in fact, is usually something you could not have guessed."-C.S. Lewis