Grier's Notes: January 1, 2023
News from around the world
Russia started 2024 much as it ended 2023 by launching a barrage of missiles and drone strikes on Ukraine. Putin is continuing to bet that the West will tire of backing Ukraine sooner than Russians will revolt over continuing a conflict that shows no signs of a Russian victory.
One reason why Putin may be confident Russian will keep quiet is tendency of Russian critics of Vladimir Putin to have extraordinarily bad luck in falling out of windows to their deaths. This trend has continued with a Russian legislator who had offered some criticism of the war in Ukraine unfortunately failing out of his hotel during a vacation in India.
The Spanish government appears to have won a showdown with Spain’s constitutional court. The court had been threatening to block the government’s attempt to appoint new judges who were expected to shift the balance of the court to one more sympathetic to the government’s ambitious legislative program as opposed to the conservative dominated court which had checked some of the government’s program. However, with the government rallying public support against the “anti-democratic” court the judges appear to have lost their nerve and accepted a compromise.
Cyril Ramaphosa won re-election as the ANC’s leader which will allow him to run for re-election in 2024 despite the opposition generated by his mysterious habit of storing cash in his couches. While he won the fact that 44% of delegates voted for his opponent indicates the deepening divide within the ANC and raises questions about whether the party that has dominated post- Apartheid South Africa can hold together. While Ramaphosa is strongly favoured to win re-election over a fractured opposition he may find a second term even more challenging.
Botswana has issued an arrest warrant for former President Ian Khama on a charge of possessing illegal weapons. The warrant may allow the government to request his extradition from South Africa where he has been living as his successor has sought to have him charged on several counts.
Benjamin Netanyahu finally finished his coalition negotiations and returned to power as Israel’s PM. His new government is more ideologically coherent than the past several governments have been but that does not mean that its members are all on the same page. For instance one of this coalition partners has highlighted a desire to roll back protections for LGBT Israelis at the same time the coalition has elected the first openly gay man to serve as Speaker of the Knesset.
Aung San Suu Kyi has been convicted on corruption charges and is facing a 33 year sentence which means the 77 former leader of Myanmar could potentially spend the rest of her life in prison. As she spend much of her life under house arrest this is not a totally new situation for the long-time opposition leader who was able to come to an agreement with her foes in the military government and led her nation from 2016-21 when the generals grew tired of power sharing and forced her out of the government and now look to permanently remove her from the political scene. But with little apparent popular support the generals may not find this solves all their problems.
The Taliban apparently worried that there are still public activities that Afghan women are permitted to engage are working to remedy the oversight with new bans including a ban on attending university and working for NGOs. It is now apparent any hope of a newer, gentler Taliban is doomed to disappointment.
Japan has unveiled a plan to massively increase its military capability by doubling defence spending by 2027. Increasing worry about the threat of China and North Korea has led Japan’s government to rethink the tradition pacifist strategy the nation adopted in the wake of WWII.
As COVID cases surge in China following the end of many restrictions the world is once again facing the question of how much it can trust the data provided China’s government with skeptics doubting that the relatively low number of cases reported accurate reflect the situation in a nation that has a large population that is neither vaccinated nor previously exposed to the virus.
Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva better known as Lula has been sworn in for his third term as President of Brazil. Despite the fears (and hopes of some supporters) his predecessor Jair Bolsonaro did not attempt to block the handover of power though he did not choose to do so graciously as he skipped out of Brazil ahead of the inauguration to avoid having to be a part of the ceremony and hand over the official presidential sash in person.
Having failed to dislodge the Maduro government, the Venezuelan opposition has dropped its backing Juan Gaido as an alternative President. While Gaido won the recognition of several Western nations his lack of success in rallying Venezuelans to force new elections led opposition parties to withdraw their support in favour of seeking new strategies to dislodge Maduro from power.
Bolivia has arrested a leading opposition politician on “terrorism” charges. Luis Fernando Camacho who is governor of the Santa Cruz province helped lead the protests which forced former President Morales from office in 2019 and for which Morales allies have sought to get revenge upon returning to power in the election that followed.
2023 Prediction Contest
An enjoyable part of the start of the year is getting to make predictions about what the new year might hold. Predictions let pundits be more creative and less constricted by facts and happily tend to be forgotten by December 31 so no one notices how wrong they were.
In recent years the field of so-called superforecasting has tried to add some rigour to the predictions game by trying to get more precise about making and tracking predictions by pooling the insights of forecasters. Since the readership of Grier’s Note includes lots of insightful people I thought it would be interesting to run a little contest this year and see how well we can do at predicting 2023.
I have tried to choose events with fairly simple and clear criteria to avoid situations such as the debate over whether the COVID pandemic met the criteria of a famous bet. To enters simply reply to this email with your answers for the questions below. I will give 1 point for every correct answer with a bonus point for answers which you get right which were not the most popular choice to reward those who beat the popular consensus. The winner will be announced in the first 2024 edition of Grier’s Notes. I don’t have any prize in mind other than the glory of knowing your have demonstrated your superior superforecasting skills which should provide a sense of superiority that is its own reward.
1. US Presidential Race: By Dec 31 2023
a) Joe Biden and Donald Trump will be candidates
b) Biden will be a candidate and Trump will be out of the race
c) Trump will be a candidate and Biden will be out of the race
d) Both Biden and Trump will be out of the race
2. In 2023 how many G7 nations will be in a recession at some point during the year?
a) 0
b) 1
c) 2
d) 3
e) 4
f) 5
g) 6
h) 7
3. How many G7 nations will end the year with a different leader than they started it with?:
a) 0
b) 1
c) 2
d) 3
e) 4
f) 5
g) 6
h) 7
4. Russia in Ukraine: By December 31, 2023
a) Russia will have withdrawn its troops from Ukraine
b) Russia will be continuing the war
c) Russia troops will still be in Ukraine but some sort of negotiated settlement will have ended the fighting
5. The #1 movie at the worldwide box office will be:
a) Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3
b) Fast X
c) Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
d) Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny
e) John Wick: Chapter 4
f) The Little Mermaid
g) Other (bonus point for offering correct write-in suggestion)
6. Taiwan: By December 31, 2023
a) China will have invaded Taiwan
b) China will not have invaded Taiwan
7. How many African governments will be overthrown by a coup in 2023
a) 0
b) 1
c) 2
d) 3 or more
8. By Jan 1, 2023 the world’s largest company by market cap will be:
a) Apple
b) Saudi Aramco
c) Microsoft
d) Alphabet
e) Other (bonus point for offering correct write-in suggestion)
9. Which of these leaders will either decide not to contest or lose their 2023 elections (choose all you think will not be leading their country by 2024)?:
a) New Zealand’s Jacinda Arden
b) Finland’s Sanna Marin
c) Turkey’s Recep Tayyip Erdogan
d) Argentina’s Alberto Fernández
e) None
10. Who will win the 2023 Stanley Cup?
a) Boston Bruins
b) Caroline Hurricanes
c) Colorado Avalanche
d) Toronto Maple Leafs
e) Other (bonus point for offering correct write-in suggestion)
Links
Has the Internet hit peak clickabilty?
Angela Merkel now appearing on true crime podcast
King Charles’s choice for Christmas poem
Is technology doing too much to protect us from boredom?
How a bookstore chain made a comeback by deciding to focus on selling books
Quote of the day
"Life is not just a succession of events or experiences, helpful though many of them are. It is a search for the true, the good and the beautiful. It is to this end that we make our choices; it is for this that we exercise our freedom; it is in this –- in truth, in goodness, and in beauty -– that we find happiness and joy."-Pope Benedict XVI