Grier's Notes: May 31, 2026

UK by-election excitement, Senegal PM fired, Colombian Presidential election, The limits of intelligence

News from around the world

The future of British politics will be shaped by the voters in the northern English town of Makerfield when they go to the polls on June 18th. This is an odd sort of by-election in which Andy Burnham of the incumbent Labour Party is running with the message that he is the candidate who can deliver “change”.

The first change he has in mind is changing his own address to No 10 Downing Street. It is with this goal in mind that Burnham has spent the last few years trying to position himself as the champion of Labour’s left when the next leadership race occurs. But in the meantime, the would-be PM has made several changes in his views in recent days, distancing himself from some past hot takes. Among the things he’s changed his mind on are whether the UK should rejoin the EU, if the government should ignore the bond market, and whether the UK court rulings on transgender rights were wrong. These changes in perspective reflect his awareness that he is running in a pro-Brexit, Reform-leaning seat and is seeking to soften some avenues of attack. While this flexibility may create some challenges for him in a future Labour leadership race, Burnham is conscious of the fact that if he needs to win this seat to be able to be a part of that race.

Burnham is not the only Labour politician thinking about the future, former PM Tony Blair made waves last week by penning an essay: “The Labour Party Is Playing With Fire Over Its Future and the Future of the Country.” As the title suggests, Blair is not a fan of the direction his successors have taken, with the essay laying offering a long critique of the many different areas where he thinks Labour has gone wrong. The Blair manifesto has been quite successful in getting other Labour politicians to write (or have someone write for them) essays of their own, with both PM Keir Starmer and would-be successors Burnham and Wes Streeting all posting replies. Though in less good news for the former PM, none of these potential successors found Blair’s call that Labour be the party of the “radical centre” very appealing suggesting Blair’s appeal is likely to be unheeded.

The Scottish Parliament voted in favour of holding another referendum. With Scotland needing the permission of the British government to actually hold a plebiscite, which it is unlikely to get, the vote was primarily symbolic. It was also a useful distraction for the governing SNP the day after the party’s former CEO, Peter Murrell, pled guilty to charges of embezzling hundreds of thousands of pounds from the party to finance his rather extravagant personal spending habits. The conviction has put the spotlight not just on Murrell but also on his allies, particularly Nicola Sturgeon, who was not only party leader but also his wife, as he filled their home with goods purchased from his ill-gotten funds, to her apparent incuriosity

With the 2027 French Presidential election now less than a year away, the field of challengers is starting to firm up. One early battle shaping up is between Édouard Philippe and Gabriel Attal, both of whom served as PM under President Emanual Macron. While the two men are among those trying to claim the mantle as Macron’s successor as the leader of the centrist block, neither is eager to be too closely associated with their former boss and his deep unpopularity. Philippe starts with the advantage in this race, the only candidate who has been regularly polling ahead of populist Jordan Bardella in second-round tests, though the recent announcement that he is under investigation for embezzlement could prove to be a negative for his campaign.

Irish politics have stood out in recent years as the rare European country without a rising nationalist populist party. A recent by-election suggested that it may be challenging with a candidate for the relatively new Independent Ireland party to finish a close second on a preferential ballot.

Spanish PM Pedro Sanchez is facing yet more corruption scandals, with police last week raiding the offices of his political party. The mounting wave of accusations has put pressure on Sanchez’s minority government, but the regional parties that have kept him in power have so far stuck with the embattled PM rather than support an election that would likely bring into power a centre-right government which would be unsympathetic to calls for decentralization.

Romania has expelled a Russian diplomat in protest of a drone attack that hit apartment buildings in Romania. While the attacks were aimed at neighbouring Ukraine, Russian willingness to make attacks on the Ukraine/Romania border suggests a new sort of recklessness by the Russians.

A new Russian law has given the central bank and other financial institutions the right to shoot down drones. With both Russia and Ukraine increasingly using drones to make strikes deep into each other’s territory, the need for drone defence is becoming a top priority.

Senegal President Bassirou Diomaye Faye fired his Prime Minister, Ousmane Sonko. What made this move particularly awkward is that Faye is a protege of Sonko, who was elected to the Presidency as Sonko’s replacement when he was barred from the race. However, having claimed power, the allies’ relationship has become increasingly acrimonious in recent months as they clashed over policy disagreement and over who should actually be in charge. Sonko’s dismissal is unlikely to end this fighting, as he has quickly found a new job as the speaker of the legislature, setting him up for a new round of battles with the President.

Ghana’s parliament has approved a bill that would make identifying as lesbian, gay, bisexual, or transgender a crime punishable by up to three years in prison. A previous attempt to pass this bill in 2024 faltered when then-President Akufo-Addo did not sign the bill, which attracted international criticism, but proponents hope that current President John Mahama will keep his promise to sign such a bill if it reaches his desk.

Somalian President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud has announced he will extend his term in office until 2027 after talks with the opposition failed to find a consensus on how to conduct overdue elections. His unilateral extension has not done anything to calm opposition complaints, who argue his term has expired and he has no right to stay in office.

Israel’s Arab political parties are attempting to recreate a common electoral bloc in the lead-up to Israel’s election. The “Joint List” in which all the Arab parties cooperate collapsed in recent years as some parties chose to pursue independent campaigns but with polling showing the pro- and anti-Netanyahu blocks both short of a majority, the Arab parties sense a chance to maximize their influence by working together to maximize the size of the block but disagreements over how much they should cooperate with a potential minority government could break up the Joint List once again.

Chinese dissident Dong Guangping was rescued off the coast of South Korea following a 30-hour voyage on an inflatable raft he used to flee China. The former police official turned government critic has been seeking to join his family in Canada, but the Chinese government has thwarted his previous attempts to escape the country. Dong has now been arrested for illegally entering South Korea’s borders, leaving the South Korean government with the unhappy decision of whether to deport him back to China or accept him as a refugee, with either choice guaranteed to make someone unhappy with them.

South Korea saw new births rise by 20% over the previous month in March, continuing a trend that started in 2024. While too soon to make any certain assessment, the jump in both births and marriages follows a series of pro-family policies introduced by the previous government, which raises the possibility that South Korea may have found a rare set of policies that actually boost family formation.

Japan and the Philippines announced a new Comprehensive Strategic Partnership as the two countries agreed to closer security cooperation. Like many Asian-Pacific countries, the Philippines relationship with Japan has been somewhat shadowed by the legacy of Japan’s WWII empire, but these old concerns have faded as China’s aggressiveness has become a more pressing concern for nations like the Philippines.

Bolivian President Rodrigo Paz is being aggressively challenged by widespread protests, which have paralyzed much of the country, blocking the transport of many goods as protesters protest the removal of fuel subsidies. Last week, the legislature voted to allow Paz to declare a state of emergency, which would enable the military to be deployed to break up blockades as the government warned that supporters of former President Evo Morales were seeking to overthrow the government.

Colombians voted today in the first round of the Presidential election. While incumbent Gustavo Petro was not eligible for re-election, the campaign was largely a fight over whether to continue the direction set by the left-wing populist who has sought peace deals with rebel groups and feuded with President Trump or follow other Latin American countries in moving to the right. With the results showing right-wing populist Abelardo de ‌la Espriella and Petro ally Ivan Cepeda in a close contest that will move on to a second round, the debate appears set to continue.

The governor of the Mexican state of Sinaloa has not been seen in public since abruptly announcing he was taking a leave of absence. Governor Rubén Rocha Moya is facing intense scrutiny after the US government accused him of working with drug cartels in exchange for their support in elections.

The limits of intelligence

AI continues to make strides that confound the doubters who insist it is about to hit its limits. For instance, recent days have seen OpenAI’s announcement that its model had solved a long-standing open math problem.

This progress is likely to bring to the forefront the debate over what it might mean to have super-intelligence. However, I’ve recently been reading about the history of the nuclear bomb, which, it strikes me, serves as a useful caution about the limits of what questions intelligence alone can solve.

In the wake of the success of the Manhattan Project, there was a massive debate among the scientists who had helped to build the atomic bomb about what the next step should be. One camp argued the US needed to immediately press ahead with the development of the even more powerful hydrogen bomb, while others argued the US should instead seek cooperation with the Soviets and refrain from building hydrogen bombs as a sign of good faith.

Everyone involved in this debate was formidably intelligent yet found themselves unable to reason their way to a consensus that could satisfy everyone. On the side of restraint was Robert Oppenheimer, the central leader in the development of the first nuclear bomb, but on the other side were people like Edward Teller and John von Neumann, who were major scientists and unquestioned geniuses in their own right.

In many ways, this debate seems to illustrate that intelligence alone cannot serve as a guide to decide what the right sort of trade-offs is. Instead, our decisions are deeply impacted by our perspectives. In this case, Oppenheimer was American-born and raised with an idealistic streak that infamously led him to flirt with communism in the 1930s, while Teller and von Neumann were born in the Austro-Hungarian Empire and came to the US as refugees with deep suspicion of authoritarian regimes. It is this background as much as intelligence that explains how they ended up where they did.

To bring this back to the modern day, what this example suggests is that hopes that AI will solve the outstanding debates seem likely to be disappointed. While having more brain power, be it either human or digital, may open up new frontiers, it will not obliterate our greater need for wisdom rather than intelligence.

Links

The world’s oldest wooden tool

Six-year-old discovers 1300-year-old sword on school trip

The world’s most dangerous bowl of soup

Daddy Longlegs are secretly hunting frogs

Quote of the day

“I just get up every morning to confound my enemies.”- Richard Nixon