Grier's Notes: May 17, 2026
Ukraine makes gains, Romanian government falls, Shootout in Philippine's Senate, A look at the state of UK politics
News from around the world
The momentum in the war in Ukraine appears to be shifting, with recent fighting seeing Ukraine making net gains on territory for the first time since 2024. While neither side has made major breakthroughs, the losses undermine Russian claims that it can grind its way to victory, with Ukraine proving that there is no such inevitability.
The Scottish National Party scored another victory in regional elections despite some signs of voter fatigue with the party, which has governed for 4 successive terms. The SNP benefited from the even greater unhappiness with the national government of Keir Starmer, discussed further below, which allowed the SNP to return to office despite losing support in the popular vote. While the party’s hopes of another independence referendum appear to be a long shot, the Scots hope is that the potential crisis embroiling the UK government will somehow allow something to turn up.
Wales also saw a victory for nationalists with Plaid Cymru forming a government for the first time since the creation of the Welsh Assembly in 1999, and Reform, which did not even contest the last election, coming in a strong second place as the long-dominant Labour party lost two-thirds of its seats. While Plaid Cymru does not intend to immediately push for a vote on independence, it is likely to serve as an ally of the SNP in pushing towards a breakup of the UK.
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz avoided a split in his coalition government by coming to a new agreement with the Social Democrats over a set of reforms the government will move forward with in the next few months. Merz’s CDU has increasingly been at odds with the Social Democrats over the direction of the unpopular government, with CDU ministers pushing for more business-friendly changes, such as reductions to social spending and relaxing net zero targets, against the opposition of the Social Democrats. One thing keeping the government together is polling that shows that an election today would deliver a legislature where the populist AfD is the largest party and the prospect of chaos where no one can form a government.
Romanian PM Ilie Bolojan lost a non-confidence vote after the Social Democrats left his coalition government, allowing the far right and left to team up to defeat the incumbent pro-centrist coalition. The result has left the government in suspended animation as parties hold discussions about whether Bolojan can put together a new coalition or if Romania will head back to the polls less than a year after the last vote.
The city of Amsterdam’s latest plan to fight climate change is a ban on advertisements for meats and fossil fuels. Along similar lines, the UK’s advertising watchdog has blocked British government ads urging Brits to buy British beef and milk after environmentalists complained the ads were too positive about the environmental benefits of buying local.
President Volodymyr Zelensky’s former chief of staff has been named as a suspect in a money laundering probe. While the President has not been named as part of the scandal, the scandal has put pressure on the government to show its commitment to fighting corruption, even as a widening number of officials have been caught up in investigations.
Nigeria’s former power minister, Saleh Mamman, has been given a 75-year prison sentence on corruption charges. While it is unclear is if the former minister who appears to have disappeared will actually serve his sentence, the conviction reflects a new anti-corruption push by the government as it seeks to demonstrate a new commitment to taking a hardline stance on abuse of government office.
Pirates have made a comeback off the coast of Somalia. After several years of relative quiet following an international effort to crack down on piracy, the last few weeks have seen several vessels seized by pirates who seem to be betting the world is too distracted to pay attention to what they are up to.
South Africa’s highest court has revived the impeachment proceedings against President Cyril Ramaphosa. The ruling will allow the Parliament to move ahead with an investigation into the story of how the President came to store up to $4 million under a couch cushion before he was robbed. The revival of the probe puts Ramaphosa’s coalition partners in the Democratic Alliance in an awkward spot, as forcing Ramaphosa out as PM and ANC leader could end the coalition, but supporting him would run counter to the DA’s image as an anti-corruption party.
Recent state elections saw India’s only left-wing government ousted from office as the ruling Communist Party lost power in Kerala. It came as Modi’s BJP made major gains in state elections, including winning control of the state of West Bengal for the first time.
North Korea has formally dropped peaceful reunification with South Korea as an official goal in its constitution. The change reflects Kim Jong Un’s harsher rhetoric in recent years, which positions the South as an opponent rather than a future partner.
The Philippines Senate building was the scene of a shootout when officials unsuccessfully attempted to arrest Senator Ronald dela Rosa, who is facing extradition to The Hague to face charges of crimes against humanity at the International Criminal Court. Dela Rosa was a close collaborator of former President Rodrigo Duterte in his controversial war on drugs, and supporters of Duterte have been accused of helping the fugitive Senator evade capture.
Meanwhile, the Philippines House of Representatives has again impeached the ex-President’s daughter, Sara Duterte, who currently serves as Vice President. Supporters of President Marcos hope the second attempt at impeachement which could bar Sara Duterte from challenging her putative boss in the upcoming Presidential election, will go further than the first attempt, which failed when the Supreme Court found the impeachment charges were unconstitutional.
Legislators in the Solomon Islands have chosen opposition leader Matthew Wale as the new PM after previous PM, Jeremiah Manele, lost a non-confidence vote. Wade has been a longstanding critic of his predecessors’ deals with China, raising the prospect that his ascension could mark a shift in policy in the Pacific Island nation, which has been aligning with China internationally. Though voters themselves appear more concerned about the cost of living than geopolitics.
A Japanese town council has voted to remove its mayor from office after determining he was no longer able to do the job due to the fact that he has been in a coma for several months, which has gotten in the way of his official duties.
For the first time in its nearly 30-year history, Australia’s One Nation party has won a seat in Australia’s House of Representatives, with the populist party winning a by-election in the seat previously held by former Liberal leader Sussan Ley. The victory demonstrates that One Nation’s surge in the polls can translate into actual wins, though the split on the right between the Liberals and One Nation may ultimately benefit the incumbent Labour government.
Australia’s government has announced a revamp of its capital gains taxation system, which will move from a model of applying tax to 50% of capital gains, as many jurisdictions do, to an inflation-based model where the more successful one is at making profits above inflation, the higher the rate of tax you will pay. While good news for bad investors, the change has gone over badly with Australia’s startup community.
The US is reporting preparing to up the pressure on the Cuban regime by charging ex-President Raúl Castro over a 1996 incident which saw the Cuban government shoot down two planes. The similarities with the playbook used in Venezuela are not subtle and are clearly meant as a message to Havana about how it needs to make a deal or face escalation.
Starmer’s sadness: A roundup on the state of UK politics
The good news for Keir Starmer is that he finished the week without having to book movers despite a week in which nearly 100 of his MPs, including a senior cabinet minister, called on him to quit. However, the PM should probably keep the movers on standby, given the likelihood that he will be needing them soon.
The most immediate cause for this revolt, which has been building for some time as the PM has dealt with a series of controversies, was the dismal results for the Labour Party in local elections with more than 1000 local Labour incumbents losing to both the populist right in Reform and the populist left in the Green Party.
This crystalized unhappiness with the PM leading to the calls for him to quit, climaxing with Health Secretary Wes Streeting, long seen as the likely champion for the Blairite faction of the party, quitting cabinet and announcing it was time for Starmer to announce his plans to exit.
However, Streeting did not formally bring forward a challenge primarily because of the widespread sense that Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham should be given a chance to return to the House of Commons and thus be eligible to run in any race to succeed him. While a race within Burnham would be easier for Streeting to win, he faced the risk that Burnham backers would have temporarily rallied behind Starmer to block Streeter in a Burnhamless race.
One reason why Burnham does not have a seat is that the Labour Party blocked his attempt earlier this year to run in a by-election, arguing he was doing too important work as mayor to return to the House. While this move in a sense paid off in that keeping Burnham out has helped Starmer hold on this week, the PM’s weakened state has meant he can not hold out any longer, and the party has discovered he’s not so essentially as mayor after all and ahs quickly approved Burnham’s application to run in another by-election expected on June 18 after Burnham ally stepped to give him opportunity to win a seat nearby the area he previously represented.
This race is a gamble for Burnham in that while it’s a long-standing Labour seat, it is one of many working-class seats that, based on current polling and local election results has shifted to Reform, making Burnham’s victory no sure thing.
However, this is a lose-lose proposition for Starmer. If Burnham wins, it will provide proof for his claims that he is uniquely suited to turn back the Reform tide and make Starmer’s attempts to hold off a challenge impossible. But a loss will simply serve to even further panic the already panicking Labour caucus, and while Burnham will have lost his shot at the Prime Minister’s office, Starmer’s premiership is likely to be another casualty of the defeat.
The stakes in the June 18 by-election are also significant for Nigel Farage’s Reform. Despite his sustained lead in the polls, Farage has faced skepticism about whether he can actually win. The recent local elections saw Reform both make massive gains in both Labour and Tory heartlands, but also seemingly facing something of a ceiling, which could make its ability to turn a lead into a majority more challenging. Defeating Burnham offers Farage a chance to demonstrate that it’sits time to start taking his party seriously.
The other major parties have less direct interest in the by-election given the Conservative, Liberal Democrats, and Greens are unlikely to be competitive though both the Tories and Greens will face scrutiny about whether they “split” the vote. In the longer run, the prospect of a Burnham-led Labour could scramble British politics attack with a more populist-left government that might win back some Green voters while simultaneously opening up space on the centre-right for the Conservatives to win back some upper middle class voters who have doubts about Burnham’s plan to solve the UK’s fiscal problems by simply ignoring what the bond market says.
Links
Japan deploys robot wolves to scare off bears
How a kindergarten teacher became the accidental guardian of 200 king penguins
Ben Sasse on habits for an “age of disruption”
Copy of the oldest English poem discovered in Roman library
Peak Human Is Coming Sooner Than You Think
Quote of the day
“If you consider only utility, the things you build will soon be useless.”- Roger Scruton