Grier's Notes: June 14, 2026
More trouble for Starmer, Romania's struggle to find a PM, Peru's election, Career Lessons from Ulysses S Grant
News from around the world
Embattled UK PM Keir Starmer ended last week even more battled as his defence minister and minister of state for the armed forces resigned their posts in the government. The resignations came after a showdown in which they insisted that Starmer deliver on his commitment to fully fund the rebuilding of the British military. Unfortunately for the PM, after making the pledge, he discovered that the government did not, in fact, have billions of spare pounds lying around to give to the defence budget. After several months of pressure, Starmer finally told his ministers they would get a much smaller increase than promised, leading them to exit his government.
This loss of some of his most respected ministers came at a particularly awkward time for the PM, who is bracing for the fallout of the by-election in Makerfield on Thursday. If Andy Burnham wins as polling suggests he will, his arrival in the House of Commons is likely to be quickly followed by a formal leadership challenge. Starmer has spent the last several days insisting he will fight any challenge, but it’s far from clear that his party will stick with him if he does.
Northern Ireland has seen a wave of protests and rioting following a violent attack allegedly committed by a Sudanese asylum seeker. The incident has served as a flashpoint in rallying opposition to British asylum policies.
Danish PM Mette Frederiksen has put together a new 4-party coalition government following 69 days of negotiations after March’s election. The new government is promising a particular focus on animal rights, reflected by the decision to scrap the position of agriculture minister in favour of a minister for nature and animal welfare who is expected to lead a crackdown on the practices of pork farmers. With the new minority government dependent on Red-Green Alliance as an outside supporter, it is likely to be a more left-leaning government than Frederiksen’s previous coalition.
Romanian President Nicușor Dan’s efforts to find a new Prime Minister following the resignation of the current government have run into some challenges. Dan initially appointed his advisor, Eugen Tomac, in the hopes of forming a technocratic government that would be above party politics. This plan quickly ran into the problem that the political parties in the legislature did not want a government that was above them, forcing Tomac to withdraw when he could not find support in the legislature. Dan has now appointed National Liberal Party (PNL) vice-president Adrian Veștea, though he did so without consulting the PNL leadership, which, rather than seeing the appointment as an olive branch have accused Dan of trying to split the party.
Poland’s President is threatening to revoke Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky’s membership in Poland’s highest honour, the Order of the White Eagle, over Zelensky’s approval to name a special forces unit after the WWII-era Ukrainian Insurgent Army. The problem is that while Ukraine sees the Insurgent Army as a force that fought for its independence against the Soviets, the Poles recall it being accused of mass murder of Poles who lived in Ukraine, making them rather less nostalgic about it.
Fidesz has re-elected Viktor Orbán as its leader. His recent defeat does not appear to have weakened his support in the party with no one emerging to challenge its longtime leader who is pledging to turn Fidesz into an effective opposition party.
Initial results in Switzerland’s referendum on whether it should cap its population at 10 million people have the initiative on track to be defeated by about 10 points. Critics had seized on the potential fallout of an element of the proposal that would suspend free movement with the EU if the 10 million threshold was hit, which they warned would potentially undermine Swiss economic agreements with the EU.
Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has been re-elected following a campaign that focused on Pashinyan’s major revamping of Armenia’s geopolitical alliances, moving from a close association with Russia to a more Western-friendly approach. He made this change after Russia, distracted by the conflict in Ukraine failued to provide support in Armenia’s recent conflict with Azerbaijan which led many Armenians to question how useful an ally Russia actually is.
Nigerian President Bola Ahmed Tinubu has warned armed groups to “surrender or face the full force” of the nation’s military might. His rhetoric suggests the government is going to take a more aggressive approach to the various insurgent groups that have destabilized various parts of the country.
Several African countries have organized flights to repatriate citizens from South Africa following an aggressive campaign by anti-immigration groups in South Africa demanding that all illegal immigrants leave the country by June 30.
Iran and the US have reached a new peace agreement that would end the conflict and open the Strait of Hormuz. While President Trump has frequently gotten a bit ahead of himself in announcing a deal during the talks, this time it appears to be for real. It remains to be seen if the terms of the deal are ones that advance the goals the US went into the conflict with or if Iran’s bet its ability to hold out was stronger than Trump’s stomach for conflict, allowing it to win at the negotiating table what it could not on the battlefield.
Former South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol has been found guilty in his second trial stemming from the events that led to his impeachment. Yoon has been convicted over the plan to use drones to attempt to provoke North Korea into taking action that could provide a pretext for the martial law declaration. This rather reckless strategy has now earned him a 30-year sentence which is on top of those given for his previous convictions.
Indonesia’s President Prabowo Subianto has fired the head of the agency overseeing his free school meals programs. The program has been under fire for delivering not just food but also mass food poisoning, along with widespread corruption.
With over 98% of the vote counted, Keiko Fujimori is very close to securing a victory in her 4th attempt to win the Presidency. Fujimori leads rival Roberto Sánchez by a margin of 50.1% to 49.9%. As a reflection of where the candidates see the race, Fujimori has been calling for patience, while Sánchez has called for a full recount, suggesting he is not expecting the remaining count to go in his favour.
A judge has ordered Colombian Presidential candidate Abelardo de la Espriella to stop wearing the Colombian team’s world cup jersey following accusations by his opponents that the populist candidate was politicizing the jersey by wearing it at campaign events in the leadup to the 2nd round vote on June 21.
In other World Cup news, Ecuador’s government has suspended taxes on beer and wine for the duration of game to help Ecuadorians more fully get into the spirit of the contest.
A new study found that 2025 had 65 active armed conflicts, the highest number of active conflicts since WWII. This seems to reflect a combination of greater willingness by states to use arms to achieve goals and, at the same time, the ease with which non-state actors are able to mount challenges to weak states.
Career Lessons from Ulysses S Grant
We live in a mediocracratic age where there is enormous emphasis on how the secret to success is getting on the right track as soon as possible, and any stumbles from that path risk leaving you to a life of mediocracy. It struck me recently while reading about the US Civil War, that the life of Ulysses Grant offers an example of how this approach to seeing people’s potential has its limits.
Grant’s professional career started out promising enough. He graduated from the elite military academy West Point and was effective as a young officer in the Mexican–American War. However, he found life as a peacetime soldier rather more challenging. Assigned to a remote post where there was little to do, Grant reportedly passed the time by drinking, earning a widespread reputation as a heavy drinker (which, given the standard alcohol consumption of a 1850s soldier, is saying something). When Grant resigned from the Army under a cloud in 1854 it appeared his military career had finished at the rank of captain.
Unfortunately, his attempt at civilian life went no better. Grant’s attempts at farming and business ventures resulted in failures and debt. As the clouds of war started to descend on the US in early 1861, Grant had been forced to accept a job working as a store clerk for his father’s leather goods store in Galena, Illinois. At the age of 38, Grant, by most standards, was one of life’s losers.
And then in incredible short order, Grant had an astonishing rise to the highest levels of American life. He was named colonel of a volunteer regiment thanks to the political sponsorship of Galena’s local congressman. He quickly got further bumped up to general and assigned a command on the western front of the war. In that role, he won a series of victories down the path of Mississippi, culminating with the capture of Vicksburg, which gave the Union control of the river and essentially split the Confederacy.
By this point, Grant’s victories stood in contrast to the war in the East, where Union generals seemed unable to make permanent gains. And so, in 1864, President Lincoln appointed Grant lieutenant general in charge of all Union forces. Grant proceeded to slowly but systematically crush the Confederate armies and bring an end to the war with total victory in April 1865.
The formal store clerk came out of the war as one of the most admired men in the United States. In 1868 was elected for the first of two terms as President, capping the remarkable turnaround of a life that seemed aimless only 8 years previously.
Grant’s trajectory does not lend itself to neat LinkedIn-style career advice posts. The takeaway is not that spending your 20s and 30s as an underperforming alcoholic is a key to achieving wild success later in life. But his life is a reminder that even those who have lost their way can have enormous potential and, if given the opportunity, can do great things.
Links
The world’s most dangerous volcanoes
The scorpion the size of a baseball bat
Volunteer fireman who set the fires he put out arrested
First leather bag from T-Rex cells to be auctioned in Paris
Quote of the day
“I don’t think history teaches a lot of little lessons, frankly. I think it teaches one big lesson, which is that nothing really ever works out the way the perpetrators intend. I can’t think of any major event in the history of the world that ever turned out the way the participants who launched it expected.”-Gordon Wood