Grier's Notes: January 26, 2024
News from around the world
Rishi Sunak’s treaty to send refugee claimants to Rwanda was approved by the House of Commons despite threats of a backbencher revolt but has run into more challenges in the House of Lords which has voted to delay ratification of the treaty. The delay is one more headache for Sunak who is trying to fight off persistent rumours of plots by Tory MPs to replace him as leader as his dismal poll numbers show no sign of turning around.
Meanwhile, Labour Leader Keir Stammer is promising to ban ninja swords as he chooses to chase the votes of people concerned about knife crime rather than ninja vote.
The populist AfD party has drawn new scrutiny in Germany following a media report that senior members of the party participated in a meeting that discussed radical proposals to address concerns with immigration to Germany such as mass deportations including of refugees who have been granted residency in Germany. The report sparked mass protests against the Afd and calls for the party to be banned as an extremist entity. Government officials have been reluctant to back the calls for a ban of a party that is currently polling in second place, ahead of all the members of the governing coalition, but the news has potentially undermined the Afd’s hopes of becoming acceptable as a possible member of a future government despite the party’s leadership attempt to distance itself from the participants in the meeting.
A bombing of a French government building in southern France is being blamed on a militant group of wine producers who are unhappy with the government’s attempts to create new environmental standards for winemaking who have a long history of using bombs to express their views.
The unhappiness reflects a broader frustration among French farmers who while not embracing terrorism have launched a massive protest that is threatening to blockade Paris with tractors. The farmers have a series of complaints including a dislike of emissions reductions rules and other regulations and opposition to attempts by the French government to reduce the price of food which farmers believe will end up reducing their incomes.
The Dutch Parliament is debating whether the Royal family should be required to pay taxes. The measure has won support from populists on both the left and right reflecting the new composition of the legislature which is still waiting to see if a new government can be formed. Populist Geert Wilders has tried to calm concerns that he is too extreme to be PM by dropping some of his more notorious proposals such as banning mosques in the Netherlands but challenges still remain in assembling a coalition. Wilders biggest tool may be the fact that polling shows him making further gains after the election meaning that the other parties have some incentive to make a deal now rather than risk a campaign that puts him in an even stronger position.
Israel is reportedly making progress on an agreement that would see another ceasefire in its conflict with Hamas in exchange for the release of hostages still held by Hamas. The largest sticking point being Hamas’s demand that the ceasefire be permanent which Israel is not prepared to accept.
The driving force behind Israel’s willingness to consider the deal is the domestic pressure to see the remaining hostages freed. Unlike international demands to end the fighting or attempts to use the International Court of Justice to pressure Israel which have not put much political pressure on the current unity government, an opportunity to secure the release of hostages is harder for the government to give up. This means the government is willing to consider significant pauses in the fighting in order to see hostages freed. But those concessions have to be balanced against creating incentives for future kidnappings which means there is also strong pressure on the government to complete the dismantling of Hamas in part to serve as a deterrent to other groups.
Also unsettled is the future role of UNWRA, the long-standing UN agency that provides support to Palestinian refugees. A large number of nations have paused funding to UNWRA in the wake of allegations that employees of UNWRA were involved in the attacks of October 7th.
Iranian back militia continue their efforts to create a larger conflict in the Middle East including with a drone attack on US troops in Jordan.
Turkey has approved Sweden’s application to join NATO. The approval after several months delay was perhaps helped along by the US tying it to a deal to sell Turkey F-16 fighter jets which helped to motivate the Turkish government to finally formalize its approval.
Libera’s new President Joseph Boakai has sought to calm concerns about his health after the 79-year-old leader had to stop his inauguration speech with aides helping him off the stage. His doctors have released a statement saying he was simply suffering from heat exhaustion and there was no reason to have concern for his health as he starts his term in office.
Sierra Leone’s former President Ernest Bai Koroma has been granted permission to leave the country for medical treatment while awaiting trial on charges over his alleged involvement in a failed coup attempt last year. While he denies having involvement in the plot, there is speculation he will look to go into exile in the hopes the government will see him as less of a threat if he is not in the country.
Egypt has warned it will not allow any “threat” to Somalia a promise that threatens to create a clash with Ethiopia over the latter’s move to recognize the independence of Somaliland.
Kenya’s President William Ruto has been bitterly critical of the nation’s judicial system after judges blocked two major initiatives a planned tax to help fund housing and his commitment to send a peacekeeping force to Haiti. Ruto’s aggressive criticism may have emboldened judges rather than encourage them to take a more deferential approach to evaluating government decisions.
Facing pressure to restore democracy, the military rulers of Niger, Mali, and Burkina Faso chose to quit the ECOWAS block. The decision means that the democratic members of the African track block will not have to decide whether to expel the members who have been suspended since coups happened in each of the three nations.
Mali’s ruling junta has also ended a peace deal with a rebel group in the north of the country. This was a somewhat counterintuitive move given the government is currently struggling to contain the jihadist insurgency that has been gaining ground in the south, so it is unclear how adding an additional conflict will strengthen their position.
Tensions between Iran and Pakistan have risen after Iran launched a missile attack on what it claims was an anti-Iranian terrorist group based in Pakistan. Pakistani has recalled its ambassador and issued a statement of its strong disapproval while Iran insists the strike should not be seen as an attack on Pakistan on the militant group.
North Korea has made what some analyst sees as a significant shift in its rhetoric on South Korea. It has dropped the long-standing practice of talking about reunification with the South in favour of portraying the South as the arch-enemy. The new policy immediately showed up in TV maps which now highlight only the North as opposed to the whole peninsula. For pessimists, this is an ominous development given Kim Jung Un’s occasional references to using his nuclear weapons to destroy his enemies
North Korea is also working to protect itself from the dangers of “K-dramas”. Two youthful fans of the South Korean soap operas were sentenced to 12 years of hard labour for having watched the banned productions.
Beyond worrying about nuclear attacks, the South Korean government is also struggling over a controversy involving a video showing the wife of the President accepting a Christian Dior bag. While the President has refused to discuss the story his critics have suggested it speaks to issues of corruption and even members of his own party have shown a wariness about defending the President’s ethics.
Tuvalu’s Prime Minister lost his seat in parliamentary elections. One of the issues in the campaign was the future of the nation’s relationship with Taiwan. As one of the few nations who still formally gives diplomatic recognition to Taiwan over China, it has been under pressure by China to break the relationship and reap the rewards of stronger ties with China. It is unclear what stance the next Prime Minister will take on the relationship.
Despite fears that his political foes would find a way to block Bernardo Arevalo from taking office, he has assumed the role of Guatemala’s president. However, the hostility of the legislature is likely to present challenges for his ambitious reform agenda.
Trinidad and Tobago is in talks with European countries to become a supplier of LNG produced in a joint venture with Venezuela. The move is well-timed with the Biden administration’s decision to pause approval of new LNG facilities in the US opening a door for nations like Venezuela who have less scruples about selling LNG to the world
Ecuador’s military has launched a major operation at one of the nation’s largest prisons. The operation is meant to retake control of the prison which was effectively being run by the gang members imprisoned there and serving as base of operations for the activities. This operation is part of the larger campaign by the new President to take on the gangs whose power has rapidly grown in Ecuador.
Venezuela has arrested 32 people who it claims were part of a plot to assassinate President Maduro. Blaming the opposition for what it claims is complicity in the plan Maduro is now threatening to walk away from his deal with the US to hold democratic elections this year.
Javier Milei has withdrawn several fiscal measures from his massive reform package he is attempting to pass through the legislature. With the tax and spending changes facing major opposition, his government hopes to save the overall reform package by trimming back its ambition.
Thinking about policy and demographics
Several stories from the last couple weeks touch on a common theme:
In China, officials reported that the PRC’s population fell by 2 million in 2023 with the number of births continuing to plummet.
This story notes South Korea no longer has enough young men to fill the ranks of its military. Even with mandatory military service for all men there are simply not enough men to maintain the military at its current levels.
Japan’s number of foreign workers in the country hit a record 2 million.
And finally, France’s President Emanuel Macron took on the question of France’s demographic future in a speech calling for a “demographic rearmament” where he proposed a variety of measures to help boost France’s low fertility rate.
These stories touch on various aspects of ways the world is being reshaped by the major demographic shift that has seen all but a small number of nations have their fertility rate fall below replacement rates.
In nations like China and Japan which have already reached the demographic peak, this means the populations are already shrinking overall. As the South Korean example illustrates the ways that smaller populations of young people will start having impacts sooner rather than later. The Japanese and French examples represent two possible strategies that we are likely to hear much more about as governments grapple with how to deal with the impact of shrinking populations.
One option is to seek more immigration as even nations like Japan, which historically have welcomed very little immigration, have become more open to immigration. The challenge with this as a solution is that with so much of the world undergoing the same shift the supply of potential immigrants will eventually be less than the demand.
The second approach is to encourage a boost in the fertility rate as Macron’s remarks embraced. The rather mixed reaction to his comments speaks to some of the challenges of this approach. Macon’s encouragement for the French to have more children was met by accusations that he was seeking to force women to have more children. This seems like an overreaction to what was in reality fairly modest proposals to try to make French policy a little more family friendly but reflects part of the challenge in many Western countries where there is deep suspicion about the idea that there ought to be a pro-natalist culture at all.
But while Macron’s comments may have sparked controversy, this is not a debate that can be avoided. Nearly all governments are going to have to start grappling with how to address the impacts demography will produce which will force consideration of changes to immigration policy, search for pro-natalist family policy, or whether to seek to simply manage a decline as nations start to shrink.
Links
What did dinosaurs sound like?
The Japanese man who people hire to do nothing
Quote of the day
"The best revenge is to not copy him that wronged you" -Marcus Aurelius