Grier's Notes: January 14, 2024
Welcome to the latest edition of Grier’s Notes. As a reminder, there is still time to enter the 2024 Grier’s Notes Predictions contest if you haven’t already submitted your predictions.
News from around the world
President Macon has chosen the 34-year-old Gabriel Attal as France’s new Prime Minister as he seeks to reboot his government. Attal was formerly associated with the Socialist Party but took a hardline on integration as the Minister of Education who championed a ban on headscarves in schools which helped him build appeal with more populist voters. Macron is hoping this broad appeal will help Attal maneuver legislation through the National Assembly where his lack of majority has limited the success of Macron’s second term.
Russia apologized for accidentally bombing a village on the Russian side of the Ukraine/Russian border. Meanwhile, Ukraine has sent officials to Davos to build support from Western leaders for Ukraine’s proposed “peace formula” as it tries to fend off any attempts by the West to walk away from support for Ukraine.
Israel has announced it has completed its dismantling of Hamas’s military infrastructure in northern Gaza. This comes Prime Minister Netanyahu reiterated that Israel has no plans for the IDF to permanently occupy Gaza after the military operation ends but that the Israeli forces do not intend to leave Gaza because the destruction of Hamas is complete.
The Houthis efforts to become modern-day pirates and seize ships traveling through the Red Sea has pushed Western nations to responding with UK and US forces hitting Houthi military bases as they seek to warn the Houthis that the world will not accept efforts to disrupt one of the world’s most important trade routes
Bangladesh’s Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina has won a 4th term in office. Her victory was eased by the fact that the main opposition party boycotted the vote saying it had no trust in the election commission to run a fair election. The lead-up to the vote saw a series of violent protests.
US intelligence has apparently come up with an explanation for why China has been purging its military which is that the government discovered that a large number of its missiles were inoperative because water had been substituted for fuel. As water does not work as well as fuel in launching missiles, Beijing has responded with an aggressive campaign to convince military officers that they should be actually doing their job. Though, if the story is true, it raises deeper questions about how capable China’s military really is
Voters chose Taiwan’s Vice President Lai Ching-te as their next president snubbing Beijing’s aggressive warnings about electing the DPP candidate who was seen as the most anti-China of the candidates. Lai’s victory was in part due to the split opposition in which two candidates who advocated a more measured approach to China won nearly 60% of the vote which combined with his failure to secure a majority in the legislature will somewhat limit his ability to be truly aggressive with Beijing.
South Korea has passed a law that will ban the sale of dogs for meat by 2027. While eating dog has long been a Korean delicacy, the vote reflects a shift in attitude towards a more Western sense that we should not eat our pets.
Ecuador’s criminal gangs have launched a series of increasingly brazen attacks in the face of new President Daniel Noboa’s promises to launch a war against the gangs. His plan is modeled on Nicaragua’s crackdown on gangs through mass arrest but the aggressive response by gangs suggests the criminals are prepared to test the ability of the government to implement the crackdown.
A guide to elections in 2024
2024 is scheduled to have more people vote in elections than any in history. These contests range from what are expected to be tightly contested fights to exercises that have more in common with tightly scripted contests of professional wrestling than actual competitions.
To help you be prepared for all the voting expected this year I have put together this guide with brief looks at each vote so you will be ready the next time Senegal’s Presidential election or Tuvalu’s legislative elections come up at a dinner party
January
Tuvalu (January 24): The big issue in the South Pacific nation’s election officially non-partisan election is the recently signed treaty with Australia which promised a special immigration pathway to Australia in exchange for committing to not accept other foreign alliance’s in a not subtle attempt to limit China’s influence but which has led to some candidates campaigning against the treaty as undermining the nation’s sovereignty.
February
El Salvador (February 4): While President Nayib Bukele has been criticized by international observers over the aggressive methods he has used to fight crime, the radical drop in the murder rate has helped give him a massive lead in pre-vote polling and make him an overwhelming favoured to win another term.
Azerbaijan (February 7): Ilham Aliyev has been in power since 2003 when he succeeded his father. Opposition parties are boycotting the election in order to avoid giving legitimacy to what they believe is a fixed race.
Pakistan (February 8): The big question in Pakistan’s election is what supporters of former PM Imran Khan will do in response to the decision by the courts to ban the imprisoned leader’s party from using its cricket symbol on ballots which will make it harder for voters to identify the party. The decision is expected to help current PM Nawaz Sharif who the powerful Pakistani military seems to prefer over Khan who frequently clashed with the generals.
Indonesia (February 14): Defence Minister Prabowo Subianto, who twice lost to the incumbent President Joko Widodo, hopes to finally win the Presidency having this time won the backing of his former rival Widodo to be his chosen successor.
Senegal (February 25): While Senegal has gotten praise for avoiding the trend towards rule by military junta as has happened in many neighbouring countries the campaign has generated controversy over the opposition leader Ousmane Sonko’s being blocked from the Presidential ballot. President Prime Minister Amadou Ba has won the backing of incumbent President Macky Sall to be his successor.
March
Portugal (March 10): Portugal called early elections after former PM António quiet over being named as the subject of a police investigation. As Costa’s successor Pedro Nuno Santos tries to overcome the corruption allegations that have wounded the ruling Socialist Party, the centre-right Social Democrats have sought to boost themselves in what polls show as a close contest by making alliances with smaller parties.
Russia (March 15-17): High on the list of elections where democracy is more show than reality is Russia where no one expects a competitive race for Vladimir Putin. While at least two candidates from official opposition parties have been approved to run against Putin it remains to be seen if candidates who are more openly critical of Putin and the war in Ukraine are allowed onto the ballot.
April
India: The world’s largest democracy will head to the polls this spring. Modi’s BJP is favoured to win its third victory in a row with the party being recently boosted by wins in key regional elections.
North Macedonia (April 24): The first round of the presidential election will be on April 24. A second round, if necessary, will occur on May 8th in conjunction with legislative elections. The centre-right opposition VMRO-DPMNE hopes to capitalize on the unpopularity of the ruling coalition to regain power
May
Panama (May 4): 10 candidates are running to be Panama’s next President. The four candidates seen as the strongest all share a general pro-business perspective with the main divide being over whether the country needs a veteran politician or outsider to lead the country.
Dominican Republic (May 19): Unlike many incumbents, the DR’s current President Luis Abinader has very high approval ratings which has put him in a strong position to win re-election. His opponents have attempted to use his decision to shut the border with Haiti as a wedge issue but do not appear to have had success so far.
June
Mexico (June 2): Mexicans will choose the successor to President AMLO in June. The strong favourite is Mexico City mayor Claudia Sheinbaum running for AMLO’s Morena party. Most major opposition parties have come together to back Senator Xóchitl Gálvez who has been trying to find a way to break the hold of the populist left on Mexican voters.
EU Parliament (June 6-9): EU elections have historically been unusual in that there is much less interest in who will win than in watching to see what the results say about the political situation in individual nations where voters often use EU elections to voice their unhappiness about incumbent governments. The EU elections will be watched to see if the populist breakthrough seen in several national elections is reflected across the EU.
Belgium (June 9): One European nation where the populists are expecting gains is Belgium where Flemish nationalist Vlaams Belang has long been leading the polls. A strong showing will give them more power to demand more autonomy for the Flemish-speaking region of the nation.
July
Rwanda (July 15): Longtime ruler Paul Kagame has announced his intention to seek another term in office. Given his dominant position in the politics of Rwanda since 1993 he is not expected to face a serious challenge.
September
Croatia (September 22): Prime Minister Andrej Plenković is expected to lead his centre-right party into the election which must happen by September 22 though there is speculation it may happen earlier. Plenković is looking for a strong showing that might boost his hopes of becoming the next President of the EU’s European Council.
October
Lithuania (October 6): The ruling centre-right coalition led by the Conservatives has seen its popularity fall while the centre-left Social Democratic Party has built a lead in the polls which put it in the stronger position to lead the next coalition.
Uruguay (October 27): Incumbent President Luis Lacalle Pou is not eligible for re-election. Álvaro Delgado, a close associate of the President is the favorite to be the candidate of the right but has been trailing possible candidates for the leftwing Broad Front in polling.
November
United States (Nov 5): The US election probably needs no preview as it has already gotten a lot of attention and will undoubtedly dominate international news for the next several months. The first votes of the election will occur tomorrow when Republicans in Iowa kick off the primaries. Absent a surprise result tomorrow there appears to be no stopping the march towards a rematch of the 2020 vote.
December
Ghana (Dec 7): With incumbent President Nana Akufo-Addo term limited his centre-right NPP has chosen Vice President Mahamudu Bawumia as their nominee. He will face former President John Mahama who is running for the 4th time after losing the last two elections. There have been some efforts to organize a third party to take advantage of tiredness with the two establishment parties but it has yet to be seen how credible such an effort could be.
Algeria (December TBA): President Abdelmadjid Tebboune is expected to seek re-election. While the government has faced challenges the opposition has struggled to put together a coherent challenge to him at least so far.
TBA
Several nations have scheduled to have elections before the end of the year but have not committed to specific dates yet.
Austria (fall 2024): The current coalition of the centre-right Austrian People’s Party (OVP) and the Greens has been struggling with the OVP falling to third place behind the Socialist and the populist Freedom Party which has been leading polling for more than a year making Austria another nation high on the populist breakthrough watchlist.
Chad (by October): In December Chad voters endorsed a new constitution written following the death of President Idriss Déby in 2021 after which the military took power. The 2024 election is supposed to return Chad to democratic rule with current President General Mahamat Deby seeking an endorsement of rule from the voters.
Georgia (TBA): Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidz is expected to seek re-election. He insists the warnings by the US and EU about the potential unfairness of the election are wrong and the election will be totally legitimate.
Moldova (fall 2024): President Maia Sandu is seeking re-election in a campaign likely to revolve around the question of whether to continue her policy of seeking closer ties to Europe or adopt a more Russian-friendly stance pushed by her foes with the friendly help of the Kremlin.
Sri Lanka (fall 2024): Sri Lankans will have their first Presidential election since the economic collapse that forced the winner of the 2019 election Gotabaya Rajapaksa to resign. Ranil Wickremesinghe was chosen by the legislature as the replacement. While he has had some success at stabilizing the economy the still challenging conditions have not helped his popularity which has left him polling far behind the far-left opposition leader Anura Kumara Dissanayaka.
South Africa (spring 2024): While the long-ruling ANC still leads polling it has seen its support leak away in the face of many challenges opening the prospect that for the first time in the post-apartheid era, the ANC will fail to win a majority though the splintered opposition makes it hard for anyone to take full advantage of the ANC’s weakness.
South Sudan (by December): South Sudan has not held elections since 2010 following various postponements over the years. While the government has committed to holding elections by the end of this year there remains doubt about whether it can successfully hold elections given the ongoing tension
Tunisia (TBA): Incumbent President Kais Saied has controversially remade the political system during his tenure turning what was a primarily ceremonial position into the central governing position. He is expected to try to use a re-election victory to further strengthen his power.
UK (fall 2024): While the precise date is not known PM Sunak has reaffirmed the next general will be held this fall. With the Conservatives polling at levels that would give them their worst result in the history of the party, there remains some question about whether the Tories will allow Sunak to lead them into the election or try one last change in leaders to try to boost them for the coming fight with Labour’s Keir Stammer.
Venezuela (second half of year): While the Venezuelan government did sign an agreement with the US last year committing to allowing open to get sanctions lifted, the verdict is very much out on whether it will actually follow through on its part of the deal. María Corina Machado has been chosen as the candidate of the opposition coalition but is still fighting to get her name onto the ballot.
Links
Huge ancient lost city found in the Amazon
The moon is moving away from the earth
Peru’s “aliens” mummies are actually dolls
Quote of the day
"Rulers, Statesmen, Nations, are wont to be emphatically commended to the teaching which experience offers in history. But what experience and history teach is this—that peoples and governments never have learned anything from history, or acted on principles deduced from it." G.W. Hegel