Grier's Notes: January 12, 2025
Austrian Chancellor quits, Lebanon finally has a President, North Korea cracks down, 2025 global election preview
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News from around the world
Ukrainian forces captured two injured North Korean soldiers, the first time Ukraine has captured members of the North Korean forces who have been sent to join Russia’s fight for Ukraine.
Austrian Chancellor Karl Nehammer has resigned after talks to create a new coalition government fell apart. Last year’s election saw the populist Freedom Party finish first but incumbent Nehammer being asked to form a government given the inability of the controversial Freedom Party to find coalition partners. However, with Nehammer’s attempt to build a grand coalition have failed leading some in his Peoples Party to suggest that party should reconsider their pledge not to work with the Freedom Party.
Keir Starmer’s anti-corruption minister Tulip Siddiq is facing demands she resign over allegations that she may be a bit too knowledgeable about corruption. Siddiq, the niece of deposed Bangladeshi PM Sheikh Hasina, has been accused of living in housing paid for by political allies of her aunt which the current Bangladeshi government has suggested may have been funded by illicit funds. Siddiq has insisted she has done nothing improper and asked for an investigation into the allegations.
Croatian President Zoran Milanović won re-election over a candidate backed by Prime Minister Andrej Plenković. Milanović has frequently railed against the EU and Ukraine and frequently clashed with Plenković’s pro-Ukraine government. His victory is likely to embolden him to try to push the envelope as to what he can do in what is supposed to be a mostly ceremonial role as President.
Ugandan General Muhoozi Kainerugaba has announced he will stop posting on the X platform. The general, who is also the son of Uganda’s President, had been a frequent poster of items that seemed to push the limits of military neutrality political rules such as a post threatening to behead a leading opposition leader.
Sudan’s army has reclaimed control of a major city in a breakthrough in the civil war with the RSF militia. The victory comes shortly after the US government formally accused the RSF of committing genocide in the conflict which has seen tens of thousands of deaths over the last two years as the two former allies have fought for control of Sudan.
Israeli negotiators have traveled to Qatar for new talks about a ceasefire/hostage release deal. There is some expectation that Hamas may be motivated to make a deal before Donald Trump returns to the White House and potentially drops American restrictions on the Israeli operation in Gaza.
The Palestinian Authority has ordered Al Jazeera to stop broadcasting in the West Bank claiming it is violating broadcasting regulations. Critics have accused the news channel of championing the Hamas-linked groups that have been engaged in an increasingly violent struggle for control of the West Bank.
It was 13th time lucky for Lebanon’s Parliament which finally agreed on a new President more than two years after the previous President stepped down. The deadlock was driven by the bitter debate about the role of Hezbollah and its military force in the future of Lebanon. Newly elected President Joseph Aoun has insisted only the Lebanese military should have the right to carry arms which if he is serious about will put the government on a collision course with the militias.
The Chinese government has moved to silence economists who raise doubts about whether President Xi’s recovery plan is working. This innovative strategy of simply refusing to allow the reporting of negative economic information may have some flaws as an approach to fixing China’s economic malaise.
King Jong Un is making a new push to stop capitalist evils from infecting North Korea. This includes divorce which has been criminalized with ex-couples facing at least 6-months in forced labour camps. He is also taking on the scourge of hot dogs by making the sale of hot dogs a crime punishable with jail time.
Mexico’s government had dismantled the independent agency that oversaw access to information requests. The agency had angered the government by being a bit too good at releasing information that proved embarrassing to the government. The new system will see information requests handled by the government itself which will presumably be more discriminating in what it chooses to release.
Venezuela’s Nicolás Maduro was sworn into his third term as President ignoring the wide international condemnation of the election that saw him “win” another term. Opposition leader Maria Corina Machado was briefly detained by the police after she spoke to a protest opposing Maduro’s swearing-in.
2025 Global Election Preview
After a 2024 which was the biggest election year in history at least in terms of the number of people voting, this year is scheduled to have a quieter electoral calendar. One thing that does not appear to have changed is that voters around the world remain in a grumpy mood posing challenges for incumbent governments.
Here is a brief guide to the contests coming this year
Europe
Germany federal election (Feb 23): The collapse of Olaf Scholtz’s three-party coalition at the end of 2024 has resulted in an early election in which all three government parties are looking at heavy losses. While the CDU’s Friedrich Merz has consistently led in polls and seems likely to return to the CDU to power after a term in opposition, much of the attention is on how the populist AfD will perform. With AfD polling in second place, the better it does the more challenging it will be for Merz to construct a stable coalition.
Romania Presidential election (First Round-May 4, Second Round May 18): This vote is the do-over vote following the controversial decision of the courts to annul the 2024 election over allegations that Russian-backed influence campaigns had helped little-known Călin Georgescu come in on top in the first round of voting. Ironically the court decision may turn out to help by turning him into something of a martyr and strengthen his position in the rerun of the election.
Poland Presidential election (May 18): While the President is a largely ceremonial role it does hold certain powers which can matter when the President and Prime Minister are from different parties as is currently the case. Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s Civic Coalition is looking to elect Warsaw mayor Rafał Trzaskowski and dislodge the Law and Justice Party from using the Presidency as a check on the government’s power.
Norway parliamentary election (Sept 8): Conservative Leader Erna Solberg has hopes of reclaiming the post of PM that she lost in the 2021 election. Her biggest obstacle according to polling is not the incumbent government led by Jonas Gahr Støre of the Labour Party which is polling in third place but her sometimes rival/sometime coalition partners in the Progress Party which has found popularity in embracing a more populist stance.
France (after June 2024): Technically France does not have legislative elections scheduled for this year. However constitutionally President Macron can call new elections any time after June and if the National Assembly continues to vote down his Prime Ministers, he may be forced into calling a new vote even though the chances that it will produce a more accommodating legislature do not look great.
Belarus Presidential Elections (Jan 26): Absent a surprise, President Alexander Lukashenko is almost certain to be declared the winner of his seventh term in office given the ruthless suppression of the opposition but the vote will be a test of the opposition’s ability to mobilize in the face of an increasingly repressive regime.
Other elections scheduled: Albania parliamentary elections (May 11), Czech Republic parliamentary elections (Sept 26), Kosovo legislative elections (Feb 9), Liechtenstein (Feb 9) and Moldova legislative elections (July 11).
Americas
Canada (by Oct 21): Prime Minister Justin Trudeau will avoid being another incumbent to lose by virtue of the fact that his party forced him to resign before he could get to the election. His successor as Liberal Party leader is likely to face an almost immediate general election and a deep polling deficit with the opposition Conservative Party.
Argentina legislative election (Oct 26): The elections will be a big test for President Javier Meili and whether his popularity can hold long enough to deliver a legislature that will be more cooperative with his agenda or one that will be an even bigger roadblock to his reform agenda.
Bolivia (Aug 17): The feud between current President Luis Arce and former President Evo Morales has produced a deep split on the country’s left which may open up a path to the opposition winning the Presidency if it can unite behind a single candidate.
Chile (Nov 16): Current President Gabriel Boric is ineligible for another term but is also highly unpopular so would be unlikely to win if he could run. After Boric’s attempt to move Chile sharply to the left proved unpopular Chile seems set to shift sharply rightward.
Other elections: Ecuador (Feb 9), Guyana, Honduras, Jamaica, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Suriname (May 25), Trinidad and Tobago
Africa
Cameroon Presidential and Parliamentary (Oct 5): While Cameroon has not had the most vigorous democracy in recent years there is some intrigue in the question of whether 91-year-old President Paul Biya will follow through with his pledge to run for another term in office despite recent questions about his health. The country’s Catholic leaders have recently called on Biya to step down.
Gabon: In 2023 a coup overthrew the government of Ali Bongo ending 56 years of the Bongo family leading the nation. The interim government has promised to hold elections by August 2025. Observers will be watching to see whether they deliver on the promise of truly open elections in Gabon for the first time in decades.
Tanzania: After President Samia Suluhu Hassan came to office following the death of her predecessor there were some initial signs that the government would relax restrictions on opposition parties but more recent actions have reduced the hopes of this raising doubts about how open the 2025 elections will be.
Other elections: Burundi legislative elections (June 5), Central African Republic, Egypt parliamentary elections, Ivory Coast, Seychelles (Sept 27), Malawi (Sept 16), Togo presidential election.
Asia/Pacific
Iraq legislative elections: While still unscheduled Iraq’s next legislative election will determine the shape of Iraq’s next government and whether Iraq will draw further closer to the Iranian orbit or look to distance itself from it.
Singapore legislative (Nov 26): The upcoming election will be the first time the ruling PAP is not led by Lee Hsien Loong who stepped down last year. New Prime Minister Lawrence Wong will seek to continue the dominance of PAP which has won every election since Singapore became independent.
Australia general election (May 17): On the bright side for Labour’s Anthony Albanese, he appears likely to make it to the election without being dumped as leader of his own party as happened to several of his predecessors as PM over the last several years. In less positive news from his perspective, his party has been lagging in the polls behind the Liberal/National coalition led by Peter Dutton as the anti-incumbent sentiment hurting many world leaders has hit Albanese as well.
Other elections: Kyrgyzstan legislative elections, Philippines legislative elections (May 12), Tonga, Vanuatu
Links
Should we worry about Yellowstone’s supervolcano?
Site of the Battle of the Granicus identified
Tomb of ancient Egyptian magician discovered
Quote of the day
"True heroism is minutes, hours, weeks, year upon year of the quiet, precise, judicious exercise of probity and care—with no one there to see and cheer. This is the world.”-David Foster Wallace